Quantum² Highlights Archives : Topics of the Month : The Importance and Benefits of Scenario Planning

The Importance and Benefits of Scenario Planning

Planning is all about getting to where you want to go. Scenarios are about getting there...on the best available road. Making decisions based on what has happened before is dangerous and counterproductive to thriving and surviving in these uncertain times. Scenario planning answers “What if...?” questions that involve important issues and large external influences.  Unlike strategic planning, which postulates a single anticipated future, scenario planning looks at alternative versions of the future without trying to predict it. Instead, a few good plot lines, each of which should be internally plausible, are played out five, ten or twenty-five years into the future. The goal is to work laterally and consider the unexpected — those surprises that undo most extrapolations — in order to examine possible future developments that could impact on individuals, organizations or societies. This helps in finding direction for decisions that would be most beneficial no matter how the future unfolds.

The benefits of scenario planning are broad and deep:

• Up-front investment in planning avoids needing to think through every crisis situation from scratch
• Efficient in terms of use of time and thinking resources
• Appropriate planning creates institutional learning and memory system
• Helps information center avoid repeating mistakes
• Majority of winning strategies result from awareness of impending change
• Knowing when to advance or retreat will keep unit alive and flourishing
• Information center will be poised to survive and thrive
• Preparing for possible changes can reduce overexposure of both capital and resources to uncertain risks
• Running an organization while assuming change cannot impact business will impact business
• Every organization values innovation and investigating new directions

Using scenarios to make strategic decisions requires considerable skill and will take time to acquire. Scenario planning, at both a local and global level, has become a technique used in the most sophisticated organizations, so mastering this art of proactively thinking and planning for future developments will enhance the perceived value of you and your information center.